The new energy automobile industry is a national strategic emerging industry in my country. With strong policy support and active guidance, it has entered a period of rapid development. Data show that China's new energy automobile industry has grown substantially since 2012, and its output has increased from 12,500 in 2012 to 1.2207 million in 2018, a compound growth rate of 114%.
As the retiring period of power batteries installed in vehicles from 2012 to 2014 approaches, 2018 is considered by the industry to be the first year of the power battery retirement wave. However, the amount of power battery recycling on the market has not reached a "small peak", and some batteries are still not effective. recycle and re-use. According to GGII's statistics, the total scrap volume of power batteries reached 74,000 tons in 2018, and the total scrap volume of digital batteries reached 167,000 tons.
However, the current recycling volume of power batteries on the market is much lower than expected. In 2018, the recycling volume of power batteries in the market was 5472 tons, accounting for only 7.4% of the total scrapped power batteries; the recycling volume of digital batteries was 106,300 tons, accounting for 63.6 of the total scrap volume. %, compared with the entire lithium battery scrap market, the expected recycling volume has not yet reached.
At present, the number of domestic lithium battery recycling is much lower than the total scrap volume, mainly due to the following aspects:
1) The domestic lithium battery recycling channels, systems, and systems are not sound, and most of the used batteries, especially digital batteries, are not recycled;
2) Lithium battery recycling laws, regulations and supervision still need to be improved. Although the recycling subject is clear, it has not been strictly implemented;
3) Due to technical confidentiality or unobvious economic benefits, some manufacturers have not recycled and reused used batteries;
4) For batteries that have reached the theoretical age and need to be scrapped, due to cost issues, car companies have not scrapped and are still operating in the market, resulting in the actual total scrap volume being much lower than the theoretical scrap volume, resulting in a decrease in the recycling volume.
At present, the field of lithium battery recycling is mainly divided into two aspects:
1) Ladder utilization of batteries that meet the degree of energy attenuation (used in the field of energy storage or low-speed electric vehicles), such as lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary material batteries;
2) Disassemble the batteries with no cascade utilization value, and recover the nickel, cobalt, manganese, lithium and other materials, such as digital batteries and some ternary materials. GGII research shows that in 2018, the total amount of batteries used for echelon utilization in the total recycling of power batteries was 2,460 tons, and the total amount of batteries recovered and disassembled was 109,300 tons. The field of battery recycling, especially the field of power battery recycling, was used for echelon utilization. The scale is much lower than the scale of recycling and dismantling.
The main reasons for the above situation are as follows:
1) The battery manufacturer's responsibility system is not clear, causing some scrapped power batteries to flow into the market;
2) Some power batteries were processed in advance due to other reasons and did not enter the market;
3) Due to cost issues, some of the truly retired power batteries are still operating in the market and have not been retired;
4) In the past, the amount of power batteries was less scrapped, and it was difficult to match old batteries;
In the next few years, China's lithium battery recycling market will have the following development trends:
1) At this stage, the recycling method of lithium batteries will still be disassembly and recycling, and digital batteries will still be the main body of battery recycling;
2) After 2020-2022, as the final scrapped life of power batteries is approaching, the amount of power battery recycling will usher in a "peak", and the market recycling will account for more than 20%;
3) With the acceleration of the commercialization of 5G and the large-scale retirement of lead-acid batteries, the power batteries recovered in the future will usher in rapid growth in the field of echelon utilization, and the market is expected;
4) At this stage, relevant supporting policies and battery recycling models are not perfect, and the output value growth rate of China’s lithium battery recycling industry is limited. In the future, with the gradual implementation of relevant national policies and the increase in the value of terminal products, some companies will welcome Come to a big profit margin.